Every bar brags. Ours posts receipts.
Anyone can put "90% accurate" on a billboard. We'd rather show you the math and let you check it yourself. This page is our public scoreboard — updated live, no cherry-picking, no deleted losers.
Still pouring — grade unlocks at 50 settled calls.
Live calibration and bucket-by-bucket performance load automatically from the Taproom.
What "calibration" actually means
Say we tell you a trade has a 70% chance of hitting its target. That doesn't mean it wins. It means: if we say "70% chance" a hundred different times, about 70 of those should actually hit — not 95, not 40. That's calibration — being honestly confident, not just confident. Read the full bar-math breakdown →
The Brier score, in bar English
The Brier score is how we grade our own homework. It's a single number that punishes us for being confidently wrong and rewards us for being honestly right. Lower is better — 0 is a perfect pour, 1 is spilling the whole tray. We publish ours, not just the wins. See how we calculate it →
Why we show you this at all
Most trading apps show you confetti when you win and go quiet when you lose. We think that's the tell of an app that doesn't want you checking its work. The Truth Meter is our receipts, permanently on the counter. Read why that bothers us →
Bucket-by-bucket, live
Trading Tavern is a self-directed research tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading involves risk of loss. Read our Risk Disclosure and Not Investment Advice pages. · Open the Taproom
Frequently asked questions
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Trading Tavern is a self-directed research tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading involves risk of loss. Read our Risk Disclosure and Not Investment Advice pages. · Open the Taproom