Frequently Asked Questions

No. We surface calibrated probability estimates and research tools — not personalized recommendations. Nothing on the platform is a suggestion to buy or sell any specific security. Full detail is on Not Investment Advice.

Paper trading is free forever. See Pricing for current plan details, including what’s included in each tier and how Live Connect access fits in.

Live Connect is rolling out gradually through an invite-only waitlist, and broker support is expanding as we onboard more users carefully rather than all at once. We’d rather tell you it’s still rolling out than overpromise a broker list before it’s solid — check Pricing for the current status.

It’s our public scorecard for our own forecasting accuracy — a calibration curve and Brier score that show whether our stated probabilities have actually matched what happened. It updates as new outcomes come in, wins and losses both. See the Truth Meter.

Penny Casino is our micro-cap speculation menu bucket, and it’s hard-capped at 2% of your account by platform rule. It’s the highest-risk bucket on the menu, so we built in a guardrail rather than leaving the sizing entirely up to chance.

No. Every trade, paper or live, requires your explicit, individual approval before it’s placed. There’s no autopilot mode. See order approval gates for how that works.

Yes — no trial period, no expiration, no catch. Paper trading uses simulated money against real market prices so you can learn the platform and test strategies with zero financial risk. See Paper Trading vs. Live Trading for the honest tradeoffs of simulation vs. the real thing.

Live Connect (real broker execution) is currently invite-only as we scale it carefully. You can join the waitlist through your account settings once you’re signed up, or through the Pricing page.

A probability estimate that’s been checked against real outcomes over time to confirm it means what it says — our "70% chance" calls actually hitting around 70% of the time, tracked publicly on the Truth Meter. See the full explainer at What Is Calibrated Probability Trading?

No, and we never will. Probabilities describe likelihood, not outcomes — a well-calibrated 70% call is still wrong 30% of the time by design. Past accuracy, including ours, never guarantees future results.

Six: House Lager (blue-chip momentum), Happy Hour Momentum (short-term momentum), Last Call Reversal (mean-reversion), Barrel-Aged Value (long-horizon value), Flight Sampler (diversified small-cap basket), and Penny Casino (capped micro-cap speculation). Full breakdown on The Menu.

Suggested position sizes use a quarter-Kelly approach tied to each setup’s calibrated probability — a deliberately conservative fraction of what the full Kelly criterion formula would suggest, aimed at smoothing out the ride rather than maximizing theoretical growth. See the deep dive.